🗞 Weekly Market Newsletter | Edition No. 20
News Update + A Full Analysis of Major Indices Including Stocks, Crypto, Commodities, Bonds & Forex
Sunday November 20th,
Hello Friends,
If anyone has a little Vitamin C + a Tylenol - could you please give it to the markets.
Because the markets were hungover af this week.
It was a very watching-paint-dry kind of week in the charts as the volatility decreased substantially following last weeks FTX chaos.
Social media is still reeling (literally) over the SBF debacle and it seemed as if 90% of weekly headlines were some branch of discussion ranging from Centralized Exchange Regulation to FTX Government Corruption Ties (and the list goes on) as the masses flocked to Twitter, the new global amphitheatre, to voice their thoughts and engage in speculation on what’s next for the industry.
Amongst the fog, there were a few golden nuggets of information that I found to which I’ll discuss in our news update below and it’s worth following the associated links / tweets as you read.
*remember, if it’s a green text you can click it.
As for the price action, not much movement has occurred.
The U.S Dollar has broken down heavily which is quite positive for equities and risk assets (such as crypto) but we are still weeks away from the last FOMC meeting of the year which will set the tone for investors speculation of expectations for 2023’.
For this reason, no one is positioning too heavily (/everyone is at max fear) and there is low volatility across most capital markets.
In short, this is my forecast for the week.
U.S Dollar = meh.
Stocks = meh.
Gold = meh.
Treasury Yields = meh.
Crypto = meh + 1
Oil = moderately exciting.
I feel it’s going to be another ranging week as we approach the monthly close and that’s when the final sprint will begin to heat up the markets towards the end of year (EOY).
I’m expecting a pretty exciting fireworks show to end 2022, brace yourselves.
Enjoy the read today, participate in the poll below, leave a comment on anything you learned or would like to open a discussion about and have a great week.
- Bramwell
(following me on twitter yet?
📰 BramwellFox MetaCapital’s Weekly News Recap
You may press the 🗞 to read more about each headline.
Major News + Crypto Headlines
💭 Bramwell’s Thoughts…
Ripple Swell is an annual conference that brings together the most influential voices in crypto from across the world, hosted by (you guessed it), Ripple.
In previous years it often acted as a catalyst for the price action of XRP due to the event typically accompanying news leaks involving new Ripple partnerships, proposed on-chain upgrades and interviews from the worlds top CEO’s in both ‘Tradfi’ and blockchain.
However in recent years as the XRP community has grown substantially, Ripple has increased their social media presence on apps such as Twitter and no longer is the Ripple Swell event such a bottleneck for price speculation as throughout the year most major events are announced by the FinTech company publicly.
Ripple used Swell 23’ to announce some incredible corporate results including;
Their product On-Demand-Liquidity that uses the XRP token has now grown to 40 payout markets, which represents 90% of all foreign exchange globally.
19+ New and Upgraded ODL customers (remember, Ripple’s niche market are Banks and Institutions requiring efficient cross border payment systems.)
Grant recipients for XRPL development.
CEO Brad Garlinghouse also used the Swell event to send out a tweet updating the world on the SEC lawsuit while adding his opinions on the state of the macro-economic landscape while touching on FTX recent events in the web3 space.
Overall, event a was par-for-the-course annual Ripple report card with them scoring straight A+ a fintech leader.
Their vision for the XRP ledger and the future of blockchain is incredible and these events should have all industry players taking notes.
🗞 FTX was a supernova sized slush fund.
💭 Bramwell’s Thoughts…
A published court declaration from FTX’s newly appointed CEO (and Re-structuring Officer) John Ray tells a story of a company so riddled with financial simplicity and ignorance that it’s amongst the worst he’s ever seen.
Considering he has worked on the infamous Enron and Nortel cases, it’s a pretty bold statement.
Apparently the entire company’s cash flow, including the funds of its users were being deployed to bankroll Sam Friedman’s personal life.
He was essentially using FTX as a personal slushfund and now the details are emerging at how bad it truly was behind the scenes.
Throughout the week we observed SBF release a series of cryptic tweets outlining his recollection of ‘WHAT HAPPENED’ which transformed the majority of crypto twitter into citizen-journalists / crypto activists as the entire community spent all week diving deep into the networks of corruption and financial hell that FTX has brought unto the ecosystem.
What happens next? - we’ll continue to watch closely and see if SBF faces the same fate as Elizabeth Homes.
🗞 Elon Musk Re-Hire’s Ligma, Johnson. (and why this is important!)
💭 Bramwell’s Thoughts…
This may seem like a meme (and partially it is) but the relevance couldn’t be more important.
Elon Musk is in full control of the direction of Twitter and the platform usage is soaring.
In one week he has re-instated the accounts of Donald Trump, Jordan Peterson and Andrew Tate, three personalities who speak openly about their opinions and perspectives of the traditional ‘systems’ in society - be that socially, politically, religiously and financially.
And as we know, ‘crypto’ was born from a moreso true liberalist state of mind, therefore public discussions surrounding topics like government intervention, disruptive technologies, laws and traditions may now be amplified and discussed with more intensity across the global town square / forum that Twitter provides.
One could triangulate Elon’s take-over / control of Twitter to be a catalyst for a paradigm shifting moment in history due to the mainstream media losing their abilities to control public narratives and puppet the emotions / thoughts of the masses.
The Ligma Johnson meme may be the most important foreshadowing event of them all.
💭 Bramwell’s Thoughts…
If you’re truly a crypto nerd then it would be wise of you to test your understanding of blockchain by reading Vitalik Buterin’s most recent thoughts on the future of Centralized Exchanges (CEX) (linked above) and see if you understand the mathematics and coding he’s suggesting to ensure proof of reverses become a staple across the industry moving forward for crypto.
If you’re not a crypto nerd, in short, a genius young kid who built Ethereum declared a prophecy wrote a journal entry and blueprint on how exchanges should be built to prevent another FTX catastrophe and his opinions are taken with high regard.
Due to this, it’s likely we will see immediate innovation on CEX software and regulation to hit this area of the ecosystem hard very soon.
Until we do, always practice safe CEX with your funds.
*it’s also worth visiting episode two of my crypto course on Wallets, Security and Exchanges for a touch-up on your own knowledge.
🗞 El Salvador buying one Bitcoin per day.
💭 Bramwell’s Thoughts…
The Government of El Salvador, specifically Nayib Bukele has turned on the money printers and publicly declared himself bullish on Bitcoin at these prices committing to buying one Bitcoin per day moving forward.
It’s only a + < $20K per day volume in global BTC, but hey, it’s a start.
For context, imagine Trudeau or Biden saying this same statement.
It’s a start.
BramwellFox MetaCapital’s Weekly Market Review & Technical Analysis
📈📉 The Week Ahead in Charts
Symbols 📈 or 🐂 = Bullish / Positive | 📉 or 🧸 = Bearish or Negative
⚖️ DXY(U.S Dollar) + 📈CAD
💬 Bramwell’s Commentary, Analysis & Prediction for the Week Ahead:
The DXY is currently sitting on channel support and pretty oversold on the 12HR and daily timeframes.
I’m expecting the DXY to slowly ride the trend line upwards to the 108 range before rejecting early in the week and ranging between 105 - ~107.5 for the next 2-3 weeks pre FOMC meeting mid December.
This sideways action on the DXY may give equities and crypto room to breathe and expand before a decisive stance is taken on the possible interest rate decisions following more economic data releases into the monthly close and early December.
It’s my opinion that the DXY will range sideways and form a pennant before breaking to the downside to start 2023.
Featured Chart DXY 12HR (click to enlarge photo)
With the DXY ranging and Canada’s economic outlook improving, I’m expecting the Canadian Dollar to make ground on the USD.
Following a short consolidation in the .75 region I’m expecting a push up into the .775 before EOY.
Featured Chart CAD 1D (click to enlarge photo)
⚖️ S&P500 + 📉TSX
💬 Bramwell’s Commentary, Analysis & Prediction for the Week Ahead:
The S&P500 chart is looking sketchy overbought at the same time we are pushing up against a downward sloping resistance visible in the second timeframe chart shown this week.
It appears the logical path may be a push up into the 4100 range for the S&P500 before a market news event which will either force a breakout above resistance or a breakdown below.
The bullish side of me has a bias that the DXY is heading south for the winter thus I’m inclined to speculate that there is a potential of this having been the market bottom leading to more confidence that a breakout is possible through 4100.
However, the more rational critic in me laughs at that previous scenario as I am not convinced corporate earnings will be strong enough considering a deflating consumer demand / high consumer debt ratio to support a thesis of bullish market vitals for stocks.
But hey, it’s possible.
It’s possible because maybe thats the point.
A complete squeeze of the lower and middle class net worth through high costs of living and as they dip into their savings, large players in the market who are sitting on boat loads of cash jump in at the point of maximum fear and gobble up all of the strongest assets in order to wholesale them back with a markup.
Choose your perspective wisely.
(I’m 65% bullish, 35 bearish)
Featured Chart S&P500 12HR (click to enlarge photo)
A quick reminder that a breakdown of this 2D trendline can get scary for the markets.
In my opinion, should the FOMC meeting produce a 75 bps hike with a hawkish tone, this very well could be the event to produce another high level shakeout and flurry of liquidations and capitulations.
Featured Chart S&P500 2D (click to enlarge photo)
The TSX has been flexing lately following the BOC sounding fluffy on monetary policy here in Canada.
+ we hit last weeks target perfectly high-fiving 20,000 - followed the path like a charm.
Canada has a strong energy and banking sector which has been rock solid keeping the TSX strong in recent quarters and I’m expecting the TSX to outperform the S&P rolling over into 23’.
Therefore, I’m expecting an inverse head and shoulders to form over the next 4-5 weeks as the TSX ranges sub 20,000 before attempting a breakout towards 20,500 mid-late December.
Featured Chart TSX 1D (click to enlarge photo)
📈 Bitcoin + ⚖️ XRP
💬 Bramwell’s Commentary, Analysis & Prediction for the Week Ahead:
With the DXY in a choppy but vulnerable range and the S&P 500 pushing up against an important resistance, Bitcoin is walking a tightrope up within its own range.
This paint-dry price action is paired with an unfavourable low volatility trading environment which typically precedes a high volatile / explosive price action environment - therefore if you’re prone to anxiety, look away for a few weeks.
If BTC can hold the 12HR line I have drawn, we may see it re-test and potentially re-enter the trading range defined by the lows of June (17,500).
However, should we experience another punch to the face from deteriorating circumstances such as more bankruptcies, hacks etc., it’s likely Bitcoin won’t stand a chance and we’ll fall out of the sky and land abruptly on 12-13.8K.
But truth be told it’s not the end of the world if we do, I mean we’re that close now might as well send it down there, collect the liquidity and be done with the bear market than continue to walk on shells in this 15.5-16.5K price range.
*it’s worth your while to google ‘Miner Capitulation Market Bottom’
Thus, I’m calling for a push up and re-test of 17.5K and I’ll put on my bullish moon suit and hedge long on Bitcoin to break above resistance and begin it’s climb into the 20K’s by EOY.
All eyes on the monthly close.
Featured Chart BTC 12HR (click to enlarge photo)
My exact same remarks for BTC can be copy and pasted onto XRP.
A delicate climb upwards towards .40’s before a reclaim of the high 40’s can be attempted.
*it’s worth stating that any breaking news on the fundamental side of Ripple vs. SEC or continued developments and announcements following Ripple Swell could send XRP/BTC soaring and likewise the price of the XRP token.
Featured Chart XRP 12HR (click to enlarge photo)
I’ll painfully remind you that the downside for XRP should markets turn scam-mode is in the .25 cent range - keep your head on a swivel.
Featured Chart XRP 1W (click to enlarge photo)
📉 Oil + 📉 Gold
💬 Bramwell’s Commentary, Analysis & Prediction for the Week Ahead:
Oil was the most exciting chart of the week.
Last week I noticed that the price had slightly fallen below its trendline and outlined a potential fall in the price - and fall it did.
Oil is opening the week in the low 80’s and when zooming out on the 2D timeframe we can begin to see a potential path to $65 should oil breakdown below it’s high time frame Head & Shoulders pattern.
You can see the neckline support and the potential correction path (red) should it breakdown.
All eyes on potential headlines stemming from last weeks global G20 meeting or further geo-political breaking news.
Featured Chart Oil 2D (click to enlarge photo)
Gold is truly my favourite asset of the year.
Just chugging along while nobody is paying attention and creeping up on the world slowly before it explodes in price.
My curiosity stems from, when?
When the DXY collapses?
When Central Banks announce a pseudo gold standard using digital assets?
When BRICS nations have had enough?
What’s going to trigger the great Gold rush of 23’, I don’t know - but it’coming.
After a short correction, target on $1950 per oz.
Featured Chart Gold 1D (click to enlarge photo)
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