🗞 Weekly Market Newsletter | Edition No. 05
News Update + A Full Analysis of Major Indices Including Stocks, Crypto, Commodities, Bonds & Forex
Sunday August 7th 9:27am
Hello Everyone,
A piñata of geopolitical and macroeconomic events unfolded this week that I'm going to dive into right away to start this edition with my favorite five headlines + commentary.
Next, I'll cover the major market indices, recap how my TA predictions fared from last week (surprisingly well!) and forecast next week's price action across the board.
Enjoy the read today and hold on tight as we finish the year - I speculate that 2022 is saving the best for last…
- Bramwell
BramwellFox MetaCapital’s Weekly Recap
📰 FIVE headlines that (you-need-to-know) happened this week!
Nancy Pelosi’s Visits Taiwan
Pelosi’s visit marks the first senior government official to visit the Republic of China in 25 years.
The first question on everyone’s mind was '“…but why?”
I speculate that the visit by Pelosi was the first chess move by the US to assess the behavioral reaction of China in their assertiveness towards claiming Taiwan as a part of the CCP Chinese regime.
❗️Bramwell’s Commentary;
Taiwan is the world’s largest producer of semiconductors primarily utilized in electronic devices - we used to have the gold-back dollar, then the petro-dollar - will the west now go to war over a semiconductor-backed-dollar?
Coinbase + Blackrock Partnership
Blackrock is a U.S headquartered investment firm managing between $8-$10T (trillion) in global assets - making them the largest in the world.
The partnership will allow top institutional clients access to oversee and manage their exposure to $Bitcoin and other digital asset technologies.
The announcement silenced the fear and uncertainty surrounding the insolvency speculation and going concern of Coinbase’s operations.
❗️Bramwell’s Commentary:
1/ Flashback to my #JulyMarketUpdate I mentioned that all financial cycles consist of a wholesale accumulation phase, followed by an institutional mark-up phase; well, the timing of this partnership was impeccably strategic - it’s time for smart money to sell their assets back to retail for profit.
2/ It’s also unlikely the partnership was signed this week and I argue this has been well known by insiders for quite a while.
3/ What fascinates me is that Cathy Wood’s ARK invest ETF dumped their entire position of #COIN shares just a week ago at a major loss - so they didn’t know. This tells me it’s likely the FUD (fear-uncertainty-doubt) surrounding Coinbase may have been purposely planned to sink the share price and likely allow for excellent entry prices for Blackrock and other major players to add equity positions in the firm and keep the price of the crypto assets nice and low for whales. This feels like market reversal news.
U.S Government Re-Defines Recession Amidst Unemployment Data
A recession
iswas defined by two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth - until this week when the U.S Government changed the definition to fit their narrative.U.S Unemployment Rate dropped to 3.5% last month by adding over 500,000 jobs. More jobs equals more income equals early signs of economic return to growth - but wait a minute, are we in a recession or not?
❗️Bramwell’s Commentary:
1/ The midterm elections are coming in November and I believe the Democratic Biden Administration is likely to do everything in their power to ensure the ‘narrative’
is manipulatedappears positive for the masses.2/ With over 80% of all U.S dollars being created over the past two years, inflation soaring out of control, unemployment data manipulated; it’s unlikely we are anywhere close to knowing the truth behind how the economy is actually doing, but I speculate it’s pretty bad and temporarily wearing a Biden band-aid until post elections.
Hackers Pocket $200 Million+ In Stolen Crypto
Two major hacks recently occurred;
The first being the Nomad bridge exploit which was
gangbangeddrained by hackers for over $190M.The second featured popular Solana hot wallet(s) exploited of ~$10M in crypto due to hackers stealing private keys by gaining access to users' smartphone data.
❗️Bramwell’s Commentary:
1/ Not your compulsively-paranoid-obsessively-secured-keys, not your crypto.
2/ The markets being down is difficult enough on investors to stomach after a 90% drawdown; but it’s an entirely different type of emotion trying to stomach the paranoia of if one day your funds will just disappear - this part of investing isn’t taught in books and school and is native to the obstacles facing crypto investors.
3/ I’ll be writing a full newsletter in the coming weeks on how to hyper-secure your crypto - until I do ensure your crypto is 95% off exchanges and 100% on cold wallet storage.
4/ The bridge hack is why i’m bullish on Flare.xyz
Instagram Launches NFT’s
Meta officially announced that Instagram will roll-out NFT integration to over 100 countries with the announcement of their partnership with one of my favorite networks, $FLOW.
❗️Bramwell’s Commentary:
1/ This further confirms to me that mass adoption of digital asset technologies is around the corner.
2/ NFT’s are more than digital art, they’re social status. Remember the World Economic Forum’s headline “You will own nothing
in the real worldand you will be happy.” The intrinsic value digital ownership will outpace physical ownership in years to come.
BramwellFox MetaCapital’s Market Review & Analysis
📈 The Week Ahead in Charts
DXY (U.S Dollar Index)
❌ Last Weeks DXY Prediction: I was bearish on the Dollar hoping to see a correction down to my area of interest (104-104.5) marked by the blue path and accurately predicted the rally mid-week to retest the red region of supply. I wasn’t anticipating further bullish momentum upwards to finish the week however I speculate this could unfold to be a whipsaw and anticipate further corrections to the downside this week marked by the black path.
💬 Bramwell’s Commentary: It took me a few hours this morning to analyze where I wanted to forecast the DXY and in doing so had to scan Oil, Gold, S&P500 and Bitcoin to determine a synchronistic path between capital rotation. Oil fell out of the sky last week and S&P appears to have room to push-up into Friday before correcting - seeing this I’m still bearish on the DXY until mid-late August.
🧸 Bramwell’s Prediction for the Week Ahead: My thoughts are that we will start the week with a bear trap Monday into Tuesday followed by a hard push downwards for the Dollar into mid-late month - look out for bad headline news this week.
Featured Chart DXY 6HR
S&P500
❌ Last Weeks DXY Prediction: I expected a harsher pullback last week followed by a continuation to the upside as marked by the blue path; rather, we had a weak correction around the 400D moving average (thick red) and a cluster of buying pressure to finish the week. Not as much momentum as I had hoped for which shows me the sentiment is weakening in the short term.
Featured Chart S&P 6HR
🐂 Bramwell’s Prediction for the Week Ahead: I’m building a high timeframe inverse head & shoulders as you can see above. For this to occur, I'd ideally like to see a Monday into Tuesday weak sell-off playing off the bear trap on the DXY, followed by a 5th wave wave upwards to tap the region in red approx. 4250. If this occurs, it may mark a hard pullback down to the trend-line in mid to late august which will set the markets up for a bullish inverse H&S to finish 2022 favoring risk-on assets.
💬 Bramwell’s Commentary: I have a bullish bias on Q4 2022 but I’m cautious to go all-in yet. Bond yields are rising, oil is falling to support and the S&P appears to want to push up to finish the year - however one achilles heel i’m carefully watching is the effect the the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening will have on the markets in September as it’s expected they will reduce their balance sheet by $2.2M per minute in September. This caution coincides with Oil finding support around $80/barrel and Winter wartime headwinds ensue in the battle for Ukraine + China’s military escalation towards Taiwan may develop further.
Crude Oil
✅ Last Weeks Oil Prediction: Nailed it. Oil fell exactly as predicted (black path) down to the demand zone in green.
🐻 Bramwell’s Prediction for the Week Ahead: I expect for Oil to start the week with a rebound (red path) to retest the bottom of the channel it broke last week, followed by a continuation down to $80 barrel into mid-month (see below).
Featured Chart Crude Oil 12HR
VIX (U.S S&P500 Volatility Index)
✅ Last Weeks VIX Prediction: Nailed it, again. The VIX continued to weaken after breaking down from its Bear Market trendline (which began Spring 21’) and I'm fully expecting this trend to continue.
🐻 Bramwell’s Prediction for the Week Ahead: I’m expecting the VIX to have a tick upwards on Monday to follow suit with the path of the DXY, however I fully anticipate a further correction downwards (marked by the red path) taking out the April 22’ lows before we see a mid-month bounce.
Featured Chart VIX 4HR
💬 Bramwell’s Commentary: The VIX for me is showing a calm before the storm scenario. Much like the eye of a hurricane is calm while passing over, the VIX showing gradual weakness into Q3/Q4 is why I believe a fireworks show of news & events lay ahead for the markets to finish 2022. We will either break new lows on the VIX which is hyper bullish for risk-on assets, or rebound strongly upwards if a new wave of headwinds creates enough selling pressure to mark one more leg down to finish the year.
GOLD
✅ Last Weeks Gold Prediction: We continue our push upwards, just as anticipated with Gold adding another $25/oz.
💬 Bramwell’s Commentary: Gold traders must be feeling a little confused with the U.S Government changing the definition of a recession mid-week. After all, Gold was is the ultimate recession hedge asset, isn’t it?
🐻 Bramwell’s Prediction for the Week Ahead: On a high timeframe i’m fully expecting Gold and precious metals for that matter to continue bullish in Q3/Q4. This week, i’m expecting a pullback (path A,B,C) as it appears Gold has reached the end of a 5 wave cycle on the 6HR and i’m targeting a retracement back to the demand zone ~$1750/oz (see below)
Featured Chart Gold 6HR
BITCOIN
🥸 Last Weeks Bitcoin Prediction: Buckle up folks, whichever move is next will be a strong one. Bitcoin spent all week ranging after its diagonal resistance breakout. While I anticipated a bullish move to 28K last week, it may be this week we see the run-up.
💬 Bramwell’s Commentary: With the Coinbase & Blackrock partnership announced last week I speculate that in the short term we may see a market reversal and liquidity hunt to the upside. While I feel many traders and investors are wearing a mask of optimism, deep down inside the masses are still trembling. This is the perfect setup for a short-squeeze to the upside + a FOMO rally on alt-coins to follow suit.
Following all of the hacks, insolvent exchanges, massive drawdowns and high inflation, this would be the perfect time for institutions to mark up the price and we could see explosive green candles if the DXY continues to fall this week.
🐂 Bramwell’s Prediction for the Week Ahead: I’m bullish on Bitcoin to breakout of it’s ranging pattern (red path) and target the 100 EMA between $26.5-28K.
XRP
💬 Bramwell’s Commentary: XRP typically is a coin that responds favorably to high volume. We could receive positive sentiment surrounding the Ripple v. SEC lawsuit this week or XRP could follow the bullish momentum of the alt coins and break upwards 1-2 standard deviations as marked by the red path.
🐂 Bramwell’s Prediction for the Week Ahead: I’m going to gamble speculate a prediction that XRP attempts a $.50 cent touchdown between now and the launch of the Flare network in September. With the launch of Flare, much of XRP’s circulating supply may be locked up as investors seek out passive income rewards from binding XRP as an F-Asset. This would lower available supply and create an upwards push on the price of XRP.
