🗞 Weekly Market Newsletter | Edition No. 46

News Update + A Full Analysis of Major Indices Including Stocks, Crypto, Commodities, Bonds & Forex

Jul 10, 2023

Sunday, July 9th, 2023

*Yawn*

Maybe we should have listened to the age of adage “Sell in May and Go Away.”

(And no, I don’t mean trading your investments for a summer vacation - although I’m confident we all could use one 😅)

This phrase actually comes from a pattern that traders spotted in the financial markets. From May to October, financial instruments have historically shown a weaker performance and relatively lower trading volume - this year feels no different in some aspects relating to time and volume.

While both Bitcoin and the S&P500 are officially in bull market territory and setting yearly highs, these moves have been fast and inefficient leading to longer corrections and consolidations that is making the markets feel like they’re moving unbelievably slow and choppy.

In fact just last week Bitcoin erased nearly 8 weeks of corrective price action in a swift 6 days of upwards price movements.

Does that mean we are now in for another 8-10 weeks of corrections before the next leg up?

Should we close out our charts and just come back in November?

These are my thoughts today;

We cannot deny that despite being in bull market territory for equities and risk assets like crypto it certainly doesn’t feel euphoric yet does it?

If you agree with that statement, it’s likely because we are coming out of a multi year bear market and heading towards the disbelief and hope stages of the market cycle.

Unfortunately this stage is where smart money has the privilege of securing wholesale capital positions meanwhile retail investors are still having their emotions played like a violin by mass media outlets, economic data reports and fiscal policy measures by the FED.

Once the large institutions have their positions secured and they’re ready to mark up their asset prices, the tune of the media will likely change and fiscal policy leaders will begin declaring that the cloudy days are soon past us and we can expect brighter days.

So it’s my opinion that we’re on the cusp of this event as we speak.

In fact, as Fox MetaCapital celebrates nearly one full year of weekly newsletters🥳, I couldn’t help but re-read what I was discussing exactly 365 days ago (see below) which was the impact that quantitative tightening by the FED (ie. rising interest rates) would have on the markets and predicting how long they would last.

And here we are nearly 1+ year later having endured a bazillion FOMC meeting anxiety attacks, 5000 manipulated economic data reports + our precious risk assets (like crypto) having their valued been beaten into the ground by the market Bears, the SEC and the U.S Government and we’re still standing.

After all of this we deserve what’s coming I can tell you that much.

Getting back to my point, while a handful of stocks like NVIDIA, Apple, Meta, Tesla etc., and Bitcoin have been performing strong this year, the rest of the pack have been severely lagging behind.

In the world of crypto we need to look no further than the Bitcoin dominance chart to see how much liquidity Bitcoin has sucked in during it’s run up to 31K.

Which means altcoins have been near bleeding out and hitting rock bottom on their BTC pairings while having only modest gains against their USD pairings - which is how most of us measure ROI.

So where do we find ourselves heading into next week?

The next FOMC meeting is July 26th and I would expect for assets across the board to be positioned at points of max pain for both sides of the order book as we await the next move by the FED.

Market participants didn’t love the tone of Chairman Powell’s June Press Conference and FOMC meeting minutes where the majority of the committee appeared in favour of continued rate hikes given that Core CPI remains hot as well as the labour market despite top line CPI cooling off tremendously.

Thus I’d expect most of risk assets to literally be sitting on do or die support trendlines and range bottoms ready to fall out of the sky into capitulation and torching the bulls (which represent a hot market) if the FED decides to raises rates.

But to be clear, I do not expect rates to be increased as that will place undue costs onto the U.S Government given the degree of debt they're carrying.

But who am I to speculate…

In any case, I will be looking for the U.S dollar to be positioned much to the same tune - either ready for a huge breakout or ready to fallout of the sky itself. You’ll actually notice in this weeks charts below I have predicted gains on the U.S Dollar by the $CAD and $EURO to setup this situation precisely.

Because that’s what the markets are moved by, liquidity.

Thus at infliction points like this nearly every single chart ought to give no hints to either side of the orderbook on what the next move will be, which traps eager bulls and bears into their worst case scenario awaiting the news headlines.

If we look closely;

Gold and Silver - sitting on high time frame support.
DXY - sitting on high time frame support at the apex of downward sloping resistance.
Crypto Markets - overbought and sitting at the top of the high time frame ranges but on lower timeframe major market shifting support zones.
Treasury Yields are the highest they’ve been in 20 years and all sitting at the top of their high time frame ranges.

No matter where you look, the markets are moving in tandem and being played by the fiscal policies of the FED right now.

Thus the riskiest move right now is trying to play it safe and sitting in cash, you might as well be ready to ride the volatile waves and catch a bull run vs. waiting for the media to declare it’s safe to play.

As I can tell you one thing, someone in this world knows exactly what’s going on and what’s next - and if one person does, many do. And it’s likely they’re positioned opposite of what the general consensus is of the market as we know for a fact that retail traders and investors lose 95% of the time.

Thus while everyone is bearish, I remain bullish with patience still.

As you read through the charts this week take note of both where and when I’m projecting the prices to go and you’ll notice a pattern that I’m carefully charting each index to move fast directly around the dates of the FOMC as that has been the trend this year - long periods of boring price action to weed out impatient investors followed by rapid moves upwards.

For a moment I want to also bring to your attention one aspect of the markets which is a bit of an achilles heel right now for many of us - the suppression of crypto adoption by the SEC.

See, the stock markets are already fair game for the whales to manipulate to their liking, but the crypto market required a few more bodyguards to hold the price down.

Admit it, it’s hard for you to go all-in on your favorite crypto projects right now as in the back of your mind you still have the creeping doubt of ‘what if they get sued’ or ‘what if the exchange I’m using goes bankrupt’?

Do you not think this was all on purpose?

It was.

At the very precipice of the bull market taking off, crypto still feels as if it’s in limbo from a free market standpoint because we’re still being told they’re illegal scams that havn’t been given the go ahead by the regulatory gods to be purchased and traded.

Yet at the same time, major players like Blackrock and Fidelity just last week amended their Bitcoin Spot ETF applications submitted to the SEC and are itching closer to being approved.

To make matters worse, the largest player in the crypto game Binance has rumours swirling that a Department of Justice announcement may come any day now and shut down the exchange with criminal inditements.

It’s non-stop fear mongering everywhere you look when it comes to crypto and it takes thick skin right now to play the game.

But we’ve made it this far and again, we all deserve what’s coming to us when this technology finally gets the nod of approval.

So to be honest that’s really where the market stands right now and nothing much has changed since mid June.

Global markets are endlessly awaiting a FED pivot, yet, every time we get good economic news via data reports it seems the FED still comes out grumpy and ruins the speculative party at every FOMC making it hard to place your chips with confidence.

Crypto markets are both awaiting the U.S Dollar to collapse as well as the 560 lawsuits against every crypto exchange and company to be resolved to create a regulatory framework for the innovation to be accepted.

Thus it’s been a slow moving summer that in my opinion is about to heat up even more than Earth itself has over the past week.

(the reference pertains to Earth recording it’s hottest 5 days ever this past week, hopefully our portfolio’s follow suit)

So I’m either expecting one big blast of bad news to wipe out the last remaining bit of hope that the uneducated and over emotional investors have left in them as crypto prices fall another 40-60% to create one last dip of dips.

Or I’m expecting for my intuition to play out correctly and that the economy isn’t as bad as the FED wants to make it appear, and that the SEC + FED have been charismatically suppressing markets via their remarks and policies to buy time for the banks, investment institutions + the government to get their ~~💩 together~~ control back after the mess that the last 2-3 years got us in.

If the latter is correct, we ought to see more upside action in just a few weeks from now which may last until early 2024.

So for the next two weeks until the July FOMC I’m expecting nothing more than markets to price assets into those max pain positions while chopping up traders in the process. The next FOMC after this will not be until September and it’s my opinion that between July and September we will experience a short term move either aggressively to the downside in fear, or catching everyone off guard to the upside.

Time will tell.

But I will leave you with one extravagant treasure today that I want for each of you to read every single word of - it’s the XRP treasure map designed and analyzed by one of the best in the industry.

I gained access to this document and have permission to share it with my readers - so here it is the XRP Treasure Map, the most comprehensive analysis over the price predictions of XRP in the coming weeks and months.

Lastly, in the coming weeks we will be celebrating Fox MetaCapital’s 1-Year Anniversary with a landmark edition highlighting the major events we’ve experienced over the past year, special features such as my top 25 crypto assets + their charts and possible ROI, the lessons I’ve learned in my personal investing journey by navigating this bear market alongside all of you and of course edition my predictions on the next year ahead of us both in the markets, politics, technology and humanity.

Keep your eyes glued to my twitter @thestoicsatoshi as each day I’m the first to share breaking news and headlines to keep you in the know and i’ll be back next week covering any progress on the headlines I chatted about today as we approach the FOMC week on the 26th

- Matthew Fox

Fox MetaCapital’s Weekly Asset Review + Technical Analysis